In spite of all the ballyhoo about the announcements of ARM based netbooks what seems clear from COMPUTEX is that Intel is still firmly ensconced on their throne and still King of the netbook hill. Further, Intel shows no signs of giving up their gilded position; quite to the contrary. With the future Menlo and Moorestown versions of the Atom processor coming they clearly plan to defend and try to expand their market position.

At the core of the ARM netbook challenge is software and application software. At the high end, users need to have that “laptop internet experience”.  That requires two things, hardware performance, and support of Adobe Flash technology.  Of the various aspirants to enter the MID and netbook market using an ARM core, NVIDIA seems the most likely prepared for success in this arena. The NVIDIA Tegra solution includes support for both hardware decode of Adobe’s Flash and support for high definition 1080p video decode without any intervention of the ARM CPU. This enables Tegra-based netbooks to provide users with a full Internet experience and a far superior multi-media experience versus an Atom-based product (or any of the other ARM netbook products).

Another major aspirant, Qualcomm, introduced a higher performance ARM CPU as well as promised a new dual core product. Qualcomm’s Snapdragon, with it’s communications centric approach and integration, seems extremely well suited for branding applications with cellular operators that are phone centric.

Not to be left out of the fray are all the “others”; Broadcom, Via, Freescale, TI, AMD, etc. This sets the stage for a very interesting 2010. We will see Netbooks sporting the Nano processor from Via. We will see entry level Atom processors coupled with the NVIDIA ION. We will see Atom chips with Broadcom’s Crystal video and media accelerator. Not to be left out, there is also the ARM entry from Freescale. Which products will win? Tough to predict. My money is on Qualcomm when it comes to the smaller netbooks that are very communications centric, especially the 3G cellular operator models. I think NVIDIA is next up to bat with the larger models where a consumer wants a more multi-media experience as well as an Internet experience. It feels to me that Freescale will make a valiant try, but is probably too hobbled by debt to mount a serious challenge in this market. The Via guys will put up a valiant fight but the new entries coming from Intel will hold back their ability to gain market share. Finally, there is AMD. They can certainly do it, and with ATI in their arsenal they should be well equipped to make a run at this market. The real issue with AMD is can they truly afford to open yet another front line in the war with Intel. Given the growth rates in Netbooks, they may be forced into it. Their Neo product is evidence they are taking the market seriously. The question remains can they keep up with Intel’s R&D and rate of new product introductions. We shall see.  Oh, and by the way, many OEMs discussed ARM based netbooks. However no compelling product was actually introduced (more accurately, none are for sale!).

As a final note, how does this netbook battle relate to “life without wires”? Netbook applications are many and varied.  Some are bought as a 2nd lighter laptop to take on vacation for Internet access.  Others are sold bundled by the cellular operators as internet travel machines.  Still others are being sold as the only affordable PC option the buyer has. What all netbooks have in common, no matter the CPU or the OS,  are two things. First, they are light weight and have small screen sizes. Second, they are all about mobility.  This is where UWB can help. In particular, with a wireless docking station, the user can walk into a room and quickly attach to a full sized 22” LCD monitor, get full access to a regular sized keyboard, mouse and a plethora of standard USB peripherals all while retaining the superior mobility of a netbook.  No Wires.   As another example, a PC to HDTV Extender can be useful. I wrote about this in an earlier blog. In particular, with a PC Extender the user can plop down on the couch with their netbook and wirelessly connect to a small adapter sitting next to their HDTV.  Think ginormous 52” LCD HDTV monitor. If you buy the right model, you can even plug in a web cam to do Skype video conferencing using the HDTV and plug in your printer. Imagine sitting on the couch surfing the web with your 1.3 lb netbook on your lap and watching Hulu videos or updating your Facebook page or playing online games or whatever. Pretty neat. All courtesy of UWB.  Now that is life without wires.

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Recently the new Wireless Gigabit Alliance (WiGig) opened its doors. The membership reads like a list of who’s who in the PC and CE markets along with large semiconductor leaders. The group is not as prestigious as the original membership in WiMedia, but it is certainly a top notch group. Many member companies seemed to take special pains to point out that WiGig is meant to be what WiMedia Ultrawideband (UWB) has not yet become – a high speed cable replacement technology for use in one room. (NOTE: UWB is a technical term referring to any radio technology which uses more than 450MHz of RF spectrum during transmission. WiMedia uses 528MHz of spectrum, whereas WiGig is anticipated to use 800MHz and 1600 MHz of spectrum. Thus WiGig is essentially UWB; albeit at a higher transmit power and frequency than WiMedia UWB, which operates in the 3.1 to 10.6GHz frequency band.)

With no specifications yet published or even alluded to I can’t make a fully informed set of comments, but I can take an educated guess and extrapolate from there. My working assumption is that WiGig will re-use the most recent WiFi MAC and that they PHY portion of the specification will include 800 and 1600MHz Ultra Wide Bands of frequency at 60GHz.   The technology will employ OFDM for very high data rates, some variant of a single carrier modulation for 1Gbps type data rates, and likely will need to include some form of beam steering capability added to the MAC. Therefore, from a complexity level, the OFDM version of 60GHz UWB will be more complex and have higher power consumption than WiMedia UWB whereas the single carrier version is likely to be about the same power consumption as WiMedia, but less power consumption than WiFi-N.

So the central question then is– where does WiGig fit? Before we can address this question however we need to put WiGig into context with regards to time frame. Clearly the aim of WiGig from a standards perspective is to bulldoze two different IEEE standards efforts as well as an ECMA standards effort and get them to coalesce to the WiGig specification. From an industry perspective this may even be desirable. But even a bulldozer effort takes time, and will likely be resisted by the WirelessHD Consortium (SiBEAM based), the WHDI SIG (Amimon based) and their supporters. Thus, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that though WiGig may have a specification sooner, there won’t be a true industry standard until late 2010. That means there won’t be silicon until 2011. Which means there won’t be interoperable solutions that work well until 2012. In turn, that means consumers can’t expect any interesting interoperable products until 2013. That does NOT mean you won’t see niche 60GHz products prior to 2013. You will. There will be a few HDTVs with SiBeam’s solution in the market by the end of 2009. But these solutions will be WirelessHD solutions – which is not a recognized international standard, but rather an industry working group.

With the timeframe established, the question is what applications will WiGig address in 2012 and 2013 and beyond? My contention is that the OFDM version of WiGig 60GHz UWB will be too expensive and too complicated to implement consumer versions of wireless HDMI The Wireless HDMI market will ultimately end up including H.264 or some other form of compression technology and be dominated by specialized WiFi-N variants as well as WiMedia UWB. The debate on non-compressed and compressed video will be over – it will be compressed just like all MP3 music, satellite and cable TV and Blu-Ray movies are today. On the desktop the solution will be gen-2 WiMedia UWB (which operates at gigabit speeds) with a chance that it will be augmented by WiGig UWB’s single carrier solution due to its low incremental cost.

An important industry segment I have not touched on is portable devices such as digital cameras and cell phones. These applications need a solution that is small, low power, power efficient and that can provide connectivity to a PC and to an HDTV at 100Mbps. WiFi-N can provide some of this connectivity, but isn’t a good choice if battery life becomes important due to extended transmission times. WiMedia is a good choice because it can support Wireless USB to the PC, and DLNA over TCP/IP to the HDTV while providing high throughput and excellent battery life. WiGig UWB in its OFDM incarnation is capable of addressing the data rates, but antenna considerations, size and power consumption issues isn’t likely to be candidate for a portable solutions by 2013. By contrast, it is conceivable that WiGig UWB’s single carrier solution may be capable of addressing these requirements provided the user is willing to be 5 feet away and willing to accept a line-of-sight solution. My conclusion is that in the end, WiGig UWB at 60GHz just isn’t likely to penetrate into hand held portable devices and will be restricted to HDTVs and perhaps desktop LCD monitors for PCs.

In summary, given the probable capabilities of WiGig and its market timing, it seems reasonable that WiGig will be a “tweener” technology. The OFDM version will be too little too late versus WiFi-N alternatives and too complex, large and costly versus WiMedia UWB. The lower cost single carrier solution may find a home in the market, primarily due to its lower cost structure and low power consumption. Conversely, WiFi-N in various forms will likely fill the gap for many applications, with WiMedia UWB and gen-2 Gigabit WiMedia solving the desktop connectivity applications as well as many of the portable applications.  Probably the best way to sum it up is “UWB: The fastest, easiest international standard you’ll have for the next 4 years”.  That is how I see the evolving future of Life without Wires™.

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We all know the old expression “and the third time is the charm”. It was true for Windows – Windows 3.1 revolutionized desktop computing. For WiFi, 802.11G was the third version for this wireless standard after the original 1Mbps and 11Mbps versions. With raw data rates of 54Mbps and throughput of 20Mbps, “G” became a big success. The third time was the charm for LANs as well. The first gen was 2Mbps, followed by 10Mbps but the market exploded when we reached 10/100 Ethernet – once again the third time was the charm. With the recent introduction of BT 3.0 however, the Bluetooth SIG seems to have missed the boat and broken the adage.

Let’s look at the particulars. Basic Bluetooth 1.1, at about 1Mbps, has been very successful in transforming the cell phone experience with the hands free convenience of a Bluetooth wireless ear bud or headset. Bluetooth 2.0, at a mere 3Mbps, frankly hasn’t brought much more to the party other than adding stereo. With High Speed rumors swirling, expectations for Bluetooth 3.0 have been justifiably pretty high. And what did we get? It seems we got an ease of use extension for WiFi marketed by the Bluetooth SIG under their moniker. Essentially, what BT 3.0 does is provide the users a 12Mbps data pipe [NOTE: the BT-SIG claims 22 to 26Mbps, however that is only if the BT radio is not in use, if you are using your headset that drops to around 12Mbps. In addition, if there are other 802.11 networks in operation on the same channel nearby, throughput could be even less]   that can be more easily set up if both sides of the connection have (1) a Bluetooth radio (2) a WiFi radio and (3) new BT 3.0 gear shifting control software. At a high level, the way it works is that two BT 3.0 products connect over standard BT 1.1.  If each side advertises that it has a WiFi radio AND is capable of BT 3.0 gear shifting, then should the two products choose to transfer files which aren’t suitable for 3Mbps, they can “up-shift” to 3rd gear to 12Mbps over WiFi. And when do we get this grand new increase in speed?  Probably 9 to 18 months from now!  Yawn.

So, here are some of my issues with such a modest enhancement to the BT specification, not in any particular order. First, operators aren’t going to easily enable BT 3.0 for any form of peer to peer oriented application. The BT 3.0 speed is too close to their 3G and 4G data rates. Why enable a file transfer from one device to another for free if the operator can send it over their network almost as fast and make money doing it?  IF the file transfer is huge – so big that it would bog down the network or otherwise take so long that the consumer didn’t use the service, then the operator is far more likely to be accommodating of an ultra high speed peer to peer transfer. This would be the case for UWB. However, if the data is huge, such as a large video clips you took on your camera phone or a few of your favorite playlists BT 3.0 at 12Mbps just isn’t fast enough.  Conclusion number one; we shouldn’t expect to see a near term   peer to peer capability coming from Bluetooth any time soon.

Second issue. Does BT 3.0 address data transfers to a PC? Today, most phones, when connected to a PC over a USB cable, can support throughput from 25 to 50Mbps with the highest speed feature phones capable of about 200Mbps of delivered throughput. Further, as the processors in the phones keep getting faster (the real bottleneck), the average speed is increasing. Therefore, BT 3.0 can’t reasonably be used as a wireless alternative to the ubiquitous USB cable because (A) the software on the PC won’t be compatible with BT 3.0 for many years and (B) the throughput will be 50% to 90% slower versus a USB cable. By contrast, UWB is software compatible with today’s USB applications on both the PC and cell phones, is more battery efficient, and can achieve peak throughputs in excess of 300Mbps. The user experience would be much more satisfying.  OK, so BT 3.0 won’t enable peer to peer applications very well and it won’t provide a wireless alternative to the ever-present USB cable.

So why is there a BT 3.0?  First, it was easy.  Many phones already have a WiFi radio so there was not a lot of hardware to be added.  Second, it does give you faster speed, but is it fast enough?  Surely not for most interesting applications, especially a year from now when it initially debuts, but still faster.  I’m sure however that there are going to be some unknown niche applications that will come to market. Finally, I see this as a prototyping vehicle awaiting BT 4.0 which should include UWB running at 480Mbps and 1+Gbps. That will really add some much needed speed to support really interesting applications.

Finally, what will be interesting to see is how this is going to play out in the market over the next year or two.  Looking from the 30,000 foot level I wonder how this is going to compare/contrast/compete with the Intel WiFi Pan solution called My Wifi. Intel, though late to the party, has been a leading promoter of WiFi through their Centrino™ program. They abandoned their BT efforts long ago so have little interest in its success. Through their strength in the PC market, Intel has been working on both a low power WiFi solution and has been talking up their Cliffside WiFi PAN based program – recently called their “My WiFi” effort. The objective of My WiFi is to make it easy to connect one WiFi enabled portable devices – the sacrosanct territory of the BT SIG – with PCs using the WiFi protocol. For a variety of reasons My WiFi will have relatively modest throughput – probably about 25Mbps.

If Intel had their druthers, I believe they would like BT to stay “in a box” and continue to be an earbud technology – not a connectivity technology that threatens their My WiFi strategy and WiFi products. Intel is on the BT-SIG Board and I assume they had a hand in convincing the BT SIG to add software into their standard to enable BT applications to move more graciously off of BT and on to WiFi. My expectation is that Intel will roll out their My WiFi marketing campaign in early 2010 together with their Capella product launch, which is likely to be ahead of the launch of  “high speed” BT products.   They will tout My WiFi as faster than Bluetooth and the way to connect your iPhone and other portable devices at 25Mbps to your PC or to your MAC. The marketing dollars and the campaign Intel can mount will dwarf any marketing message BT will be able to muster around BT 3.0. More over, consumers equate WiFi with data connectivity.  My WiFi therefore will make sense to consumers.  The BT-SIG has a harder PR job with “high speed BT”. Who needs that kind of speed for audio? The results?  BT 3.0 has significant trouble getting traction and awaits rebirth as BT 4.0, a true high speed standard.

The good news however is the BT SIG, true to its mission, is trying to improve connectivity for consumers. They are bringing forward a tiny incremental speed improvement; they will build a nice prototype for what the BT SIG really needs to enable Life Without Wires™ – a UWB radio operating at both 480Mbps and 1Gbps at extremely low power. Now we are talking.

Recently Intel formerly announced the Nehalem processor family to much fanfare. There was much written about the virtualization capabilities, the improvements in power efficiency, the addition of more cores, threads, improvements over Woodcrest, etc. What hasn’t received much attention are the two communications chips in the family. Included within the Xeon 5500 family are two products targeted at directly at the communications market  - the L5518 and the L5508.  These two chips represent an enormous R&D investment on Intel’s part and they certainly were not done as “Field of Dream” chips, they were done for a customer. The only customer in the networking world worth doing a chip like this for is Cisco. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that what we are witnessing with the introduction of the 5508 and the 5518 is the gradual reduction of dependency by Cisco and others on the PPC and MIPS architecture processors for control plane applications on communications line cards. Much as I wrote about the Apple switch from PPC to Intel architecture some years ago, now we are seeing Cisco make the same kind of strategic processor architecture choice. Intel is a manufacturing powerhouse. They always have the latest lithography and largest capacity. They have the R&D to keep investing hundreds of millions of dollars to keep their product line fresh. With the addition of multiple cores, virtualization, many threads and integrated memory controllers, Nehalem becomes a compelling choice for many high end control plane processor cards.  Given the struggles Freescale has had getting its own high performance multi-core processors to market, compounded with IBM’s tardiness in new PPCs and the acquisition of PPC specialist PA Semi, the choice by Cisco to augment their products with an Intel architecture is both understandable and compelling. This is not going to be the same type of switch that happened at Apple – which was pretty much a light switch change over. Instead, what you will see is the inexorable pull of the Intel black hole on control plane processors. The highest value sockets will convert first to Nehalem processors and their progeny. Then the natural progression will be that they will work their way down into midrange systems over time. In spite of the ballyhoo that surrounded the PPC Cell series of chips, it doesn’t appear that customers have figured out how to program this beast for these types of communications applications. The multi-core MIPS products have been making some progress as evidenced by the Cavium product family. Never the less the inexorable march of the Intel architecture across the most important sockets in communications has begun. This in turn will relegate the PPC architecture to IBM servers and a few game consoles.  That probably isn’t enough to make the investments required to stay competitive in this ever more expensive endeavor of building leading edge processors. In the end, it is not a matter of IF, but when, the PPC reaches the Event Horizon of the Intel architecture black hole.  Time will tell.

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As one of the three founding members of the WiMedia Alliance (along with Kodak and Motorola) and the longest serving board member, Alereon is pleased with the announcement that the WiMedia Alliance is transferring its UWB specification(s) to the Bluetooth SIG and to the USB Implementers Forum (USB-IF). When the WiMedia Alliance was formed, its purpose was to promote Wireless MultiMedia using UltraWideBand (UWB) technology, which is fundamentally a revolutionary form of radio communications. Over the last six years the WiMedia Alliance has had many successes and has made substantial progress. In spite of the stymied efforts and the ultimate collapse of the IEEE standards process, WiMedia was ultimately successful in making the WiMedia specification an internationally recognized, UN sanctioned, ISO standard through the ECMA standards body. Further, the WiMedia Alliance was successful in achieving recognition of the UWB spectrum in the USA, the EU countries, Japan, China and Korea. Most importantly, WiMedia’s ambitious vision has been to quickly and efficiently eliminate existing cables to enable a Life Without Wires™. To accomplish this, the WiMedia Alliance implemented a “common radio platform” strategy to enable a single UWB chip to be capable of supporting applications for 1) the installed base of familiar USB products (now called Certified Wireless USB), and/or 2) Bluetooth for mobile Personal Area Networks (PANs) and/or 3) TCP/IP for future applications.

In 2004, the USB-IF adopted the WiMedia specification, which was followed by the Bluetooth SIG’s adoption of WiMedia in May 2005 [subject to the proviso that at least three WiMedia silicon providers be capable of supporting the UWB frequencies above 6GHz]. Alereon was the first company to sample a chip that operated above 6Ghz with a product that supports frequencies from 3 to 11GHz back in June of 2007. In late 2008 three other companies also achieved this milestone. Shortly, there will be yet another company that supports UWB above 6GHz, totaling five companies who are able to support Bluetooth-over-UWB. In the meantime, the WiMedia Alliance has completed 3 next generation specifications. One specification extends speeds over 1Gbps for applications such as streaming video. Another lowers both speed and power for mobile applications such as cell phones. Yet the third extends UWB to work over coax in the 2.112 to 3.6GHz band for home networks.

With its strategic initiatives successfully completed, WiMedia has come to a cross roads. Unlike any other wireless standard before it, WiMedia was specifically designed to support USB applications AND Bluetooth applications AND TCP/IP applications. Now that the technology has matured and succeeded at these goals, the future of the technology needs to be guided by the applications that drive those protocol standards. This means the USB-IF and the Bluetooth-SIG. That is what the recent WiMedia announcement is all about.

Much has been written recently about the demise of UWB, as the economy has tanked so have a few privately funded UWB companies along with the coincident closure of UWB efforts at Intel. Others have recently written that Intel’s “My WiFi” effort will be the death of UWB.   On the one hand, I see the thinning of the number of UWB companies to be the natural progression of any technology. Inevitably only two or three companies survive to serve any new wireless market. On the other hand, unlike some of my colleagues, I believe Intel will have some limited success with their “My WiFi” effort. There is no real reason “My WiFi” can’t be made “good enough” for some types of bulk data transfer applications. Conversely, I don’t look to Intel as the shining paragon of auguring the future of wireless technology either.

Many writers and bloggers who cover technology like to make it out as a battle between WiFi and UWB. They seem to envision WiFi standing over the crumpled body of UWB, the would-be also-ran interloper. Fundamentally however, UWB will ultimately succeed because of physics, software application compatibility and consumers. UWB is far more power efficient than WiFi due to simple physics. If you want to move lots of data wirelessly over short distances with the minimum battery drain, then UWB is 10X more efficient than WiFi. Further, UWB has a far higher spatial capacity (Mbps/meter2); which is ideal for dense “cube farm” or cubicle office deployments. Clearly the speed and power efficiency of UWB make it the technology of choice as we move more and more into a wireless and mobile society. Additionally there is the issue of spectrum. There are many GHz of free unlicensed UWB spectrum available around the world. The only way to make practical use of this spectrum is to use the WiMedia UWB standard. As Moore’s Law brings UWB chips under $5 and under 400mw with speeds that can top 1Gbps, UWB will become pervasive. Why? Applications compatibility. Today there are over 2 Billion products sold every year that have a USB port making this the most successful interface in history. The world is yearning for a wireless version of USB, much like what 802.11 did for 10/100 Ethernet but on a much grander scale. Now add the over 500 Million phones sold every year that have Bluetooth that need a higher speed, more power efficient (Mbits/mA) wireless technology to move the ever increasing file sizes of digital content.

To illustrate the influence of applications legacy, let’s consider digital cameras. There are 130M digital cameras sold every year. The applications that are included with each and every DSC (digital still camera) sold and every single PC sold all are tied to the USB protocol. That is a big investment. During 2009 consumers will see UWB based DSCs come to market that wirelessly transfer photos to their PC at speeds 40X faster than WiFi. Why so much faster? The manufacturers of Wireless USB based DSCs don’t have to alter one single line of software to make it work, and work well. It is all native – just a convenient wireless version of that misplaced USB cable that came with the camera. In contrast, to avoid re-writing the ever-so-critical USB applications on their cameras, DSC manufacturers implement WiFi cameras by writing protocol converters that spoof their USB software stacks and then transfer the data over WiFi. The overhead to do this is enormous and makes the transfer relatively slow and inefficient. As a result,  UWB and Wireless USB will succeed because of speed, power efficiency and the ability to support legacy USB software.

With cell phones, the dynamic will play out very differently. The Bluetooth SIG needs a power efficient path to high speeds that is very energy efficient at short range. Once again, UWB is the technological solution they have chosen to solve the problem. But wait – Bluetooth is using WiFi in the next release; right? Why implement UWB after releasing WiFi? First, WiFi chips are already showing up in phones as a means to connect to the Internet so why not use it. The chip is free. Longer term however, the WiFi Alliance will continue to focus their energies on what WiFi is meant to do – longer range, wireless Internet access. On the other hand, Bluetooth’s mission is short range, handset centric, battery efficient personal area network applications – which is ideally aligned with the capabilities of UWB. This recent marriage between WiFi and Bluetooth has been a marriage of convenience. However, going forward, with WiMedia’s spec now controlled by Bluetooth, they can own it and love it and guide it wherever their 10,000 members and handset customers want it to go. This is certainly not going to be in the direction that a long range wireless Internet standards body such as the WiFi alliance is likely to be going. So ultimately, WiMedia UWB will succeed in the hand set as well.

As we stand at the threshold of transferring the WiMedia UWB specifications (ECMA 368 & 369) to both USB and Bluetooth, what does the future of UWB hold? Undeniably, the road thus far has been long and hard. The technology itself is difficult and the obstacles that had to be overcome were daunting. However, throughout 2009 you will see interesting UWB products enter the market. These products will include wireless HDMI from Gefen and Monster Cable, as well as wireless docking stations, wireless hard drives and wireless digital cameras all from major consumer products companies. These products will begin to change the perception of the value of UWB. In 2010 the momentum will build. I expect the USB-IF will release the 1Gbps UWB specification they are receiving from WiMedia. In a similar manner, I expect the Bluetooth SIG to announce their own extensions of WiMedia which are backward compatible with the current 1.2 specification, but they will also probably add enhancements of their own that are especially suited to the cellular market.

In summary, as one of the founding members of the WiMedia Alliance, Alereon is both proud of WiMedia’s numerous accomplishments and happy to see the transition of the specifications into USB and into Bluetooth. WiMedia has been a success, and achieved its objectives. It is impossible to predict how UWB technology will evolve and the rate of adoption in 2009, 2010 or 2011. However a few things are certain.  Pundits will continue to write about the demise of UWB until they buy the first UWB product that they love. UWB will ultimately succeed due to physics, Moore’s Law, free spectrum and WiMedia’s ability to support legacy USB and Bluetooth software applications. It is only a matter of time before UWB sees explosive growth. Alereon, like others, continues to work hard at making the future of Life Without Wires™ a reality.

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I have written in the past regarding the newest form of UWB on the block, the much over-hyped 60GHz. (yes, 60GHz technology uses an UltraWideband channel). This article isn’t going to debate the merits of 60GHz nor when it might be real at a rational price point.  Rather, I want to share some thoughts on a class of new UWB products coming to market this year and in that context explain why UWB rather than 60GHz will be the primary technology for this application for years to come.

This year we have seen many companies working on products targeted to enable couch potato’s to plop down on the couch or slide into an easy-chair, then pop open their laptop and send their laptop’s screen to their beautiful 52” HDTV. Let’s call this our NoWire™ link. Early designs of this product will use a small USB dongle snapped into your laptop that will wirelessly connect to a small adapter, about the size of a deck of cards, that will sit under the front edge of your HDTV [longer term you won’t need the dongle, it will come standard in all laptops]. This unit will plug via HDMI into the back of your HDTV. Think of the uses, applications, and convenience of this product. Wow.

Let me share some of my own application examples. (If you have a moment, please post your comments on how you would use this product.) For myself, I can foresee using my NoWire link to display slide shows of my favorite photos on my HDTV. In fact, I can use my HDTV like a giant Photo Panel and have it rotate family photos consistently when I’m not watching TV.   I can surf the web as well. Facebook, MySpace and YouTube right up on my HDTV. Especially watching the crazy guys in Norway with their flying suit stunts off the cliff tops. How about watching 30 Rock from Hulu with the episode playing on my 52 incher instead of my laptop? What about doing Gmail or Outlook email on the big screen? Think about playing World of Warcraft on your gamer laptop with the screen now being the same one you use for your Xbox 360? How about Skype Webcam conferencing to family around the world using your HDTV as the display? Of course there is the ever ubiquitous Google search, or Google maps and even more entertaining on the big screen – flying the globe and exploring the oceans with Google Earth™.  The possibilities are as endless as PC applications and the World Wide Web – and all made possible by the simplicity, power efficiency, speed and audio/video synch capability of UWB.

Personally, I believe this is a very compelling application. Can a NoWire™ product be built using 60GHz technology? Eventually, but it won’t be in the form of 60GHz wireless HDMI. Why? Cost and complexity. With UWB, this type of NoWire product will sell as an aftermarket USB dongle and HDTV Adapter kit into retail stores this year for $149. The price will quickly drop down to $129, then $99 and then $79; all within the next year. A comparable 60GHz product will take years to build and be much more expensive. So, the question is this - would you rather buy a NoWire product sooner for $99 or wait three or four years for 60GHz to try and tackle the problem? I know what my answer will be. I am impatient, and for $99 bucks I am going to go out and buy a NoWire adapter as soon as they hit the shelves. Once you’ve seen it or tried it, you will too. Oh, and once you have your laptop connected think about the future in which you’ll be able to connect your digital camera or cell phone to the TV to view photos or check out your iTunes apps.” NoWire technology will be just one more example that will bring us closer to a future Life without Wires™ – courtesy of UWB.

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I just returned from CES 2009 held in Las Vegas this past week.  Wandering the show floor, there was a great deal of buzz about 60GHz, which resulted in a few articles in various tech journals. One module company announced high volume pricing at $240 for the guts of a 60GHz solution. By my calculations, that is about $999 retail. Ouch.  Another company announced their proprietary chipset was ready for production. I did manage to see a few prototype product demonstrations of 60GHz. The demonstrations were roped off so that you couldn’t interrupt the RF beam – otherwise the link broke. One Tier-1 company’s demonstration transmitter was about the size of a paperback version of War and Peace. It had a cool colored transparent plastic case with a heat sink the size of a candy bar. There were chips and boards and wires everywhere. The demo did work, but it was clear to me that if any company ships this system in 2009, it will be in very tiny volumes. I don’t work on the 60GHz version of UWB, but it certainly seemed like it will be two years before a solution can reach a price and performance point that makes it truly viable. I also felt a sense of déjà vu from CES in 2004 – when Freescale showed a set of nice wireless video demonstrations using pulse-based UWB. These demonstrations were in the booths of four Tier-1 CE manufacturers. None of the products shown at that CES based on Freescale’s proprietary standard   ever shipped. Sound familiar?

By contrast, while I was at CES 2009, I did see a nice demonstration of Wireless HDMI using a UWB chipset from TZero in conjunction with an H.264 codec from Cavium. The system was impressive; it worked well and visually looked good. It also had such an undetectable latency that it could be used in gaming applications and standard STB or Blu-Ray player wireless HDMI applications. I couldn’t tell from looking at the circuit board how cost effective the solution was; however, it was smaller than the 60GHz box I saw and didn’t have a 4” heat sink.

As I think more about 60GHz, I’m also bothered by the issue of standards.  Most CE companies join all of the standards groups because they don’t know which one will win. They are standards pluralists and aren’t monogamous. In the 60GHz standardization world we have WirelessHD, WHDMI, IEEE 802.15.3c, ECMA-387 and the IEEE VHT 60GHz WiFi group already battling. No doubt there is probably some big company effort lurking in the background as well. Nearly every CE company is a member of almost every one of these standards groups. Therefore, using some big company’s logo on your standard means a bit less than the ink it is printed with. In the CE world there are no interesting volumes until you get a standard.  This standards effort again is reminiscent of the UWB standards battle in the IEEE during 2004 – but worse.  The UWB battle was essentially between two proposals that ultimately came to an end when the IEEE dropped their effort in January 2006. The industry agreed on the WiMedia OFDM based UWB standard, which was completed through ECMA as ECMA-368. Expect 2009 to be the smack down in the 60GHz standards wars.

So, what is the outlook for 60GHz? Not being intimately close to the technology, I am speculating a bit, but I suspect we will see some very low volume “concept car” products using 60GHz in 2009. I expect that the mostly line-of-sight nature of the technology will get mixed reviews and it will be hit hard by the high price. The standards battles in 60GHz are likely to heat up by mid-year, with the normal FUD wars swinging into full gear. With a difficult economy, some of the 60GHz products shown at CES will be postponed – ostensibly for economic reasons, but probably for deeper reasons. Ultimately, the standards battle will work itself out and the prices of these systems will come down. I fully expect 60GHz video systems to find a way into people’s living rooms — in 2011 or 2012. It won’t, however, be the only way to receive video in your living room. The options will be plentiful. Some will be wireless and based on UWB; others will be coax connections. Still others may be HomePlug powerline connections. There isn’t going to be just one solution or one winner. I am looking forward to my first wireless HDTV– though I think mine will be UWB based. “Life without wires” is getting closer to reality every day.

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On December 17th, nVidia released the Ion platform. Ion is essentially a reference design that hooks together nVidia’s 94000M and Intel’s Atom processor, which was designed for low power, small form factor netbooks. What is fascinating about the Ion is that it has the potential to be a game changer that will give the Intel and AMD crowd fits. Why? First, the graphics and multimedia performance of the Ion, by using the big GPU in the 94000M, enables a netbook or laptop to be capable of XP or Vista or Windows-7 and run a much larger screen size than 8 or 10”. Second, the Ion supports additional IO including HDMI, dual DVI, SATA, USB2.0 and Ethernet all at the same power consumption of an entire Intel-based netbook today. Intel and AMD will have fits when ODMs build both netbooks AND small notebooks that will give users much better graphics and lots more IO – all at a price point much less than even low-end Centrino based laptops. Therefore, the average x86 processor ASP for consumer laptops of 13” and perhaps even 15” and below are set to come down, while the ASP in these same products for nVidia GPU’s is set to rise. That is a game changer.

In response, Intel is likely to restrict the supply of Atom chips in order to reduce the impact on Centrino sales. Intel, however, is not the only game in town.  Manufacturers of netbooks currently using Atom are also evaluating the Nano processor from Via.  It is highly likely that nVidia is working with Via on an Ion-Via equivalent solution. Via is not interested in reducing or restricting their sales, and no doubt will make as many Nano’s as a customer wants to purchase. This competition, as it comes to fruition, will put Intel in a double bind. Their choice will be to either sell more Atom processors to reduce X86 share loss to Via’s Nano processor, while helping to cannibalize their Centrino business, or they can restrict the supply of Atom processors but lose share to Via. In either case, the consumer wins.

So, how does all of this nVidia and Intel marketplace battle relate to “life without wires” you may ask? Simple. The ideal netbook or entry laptop should be inexpensive, lightweight, have long battery life adequate for email and the Internet, contain integrated WiFi and have reasonable graphics and multimedia.  To keep it low cost and light weight, netbooks or laptops should only have one USB port and perhaps one ExpressCard slot. No other ports that add cost and weight. For port expansion, these products should offer a wireless docking station option – both entry level and more sophisticated, which connect via Wireless USB. The wireless dock would be used for optional port expansion on a desktop including driving a monitor, keyboard and mouse ports, extra USB ports, audio out/audio in, etc. The netbook should sell for $289 to $449.  The wireless dock option should sell for either $129 or $199. This wouldn’t be the desktop machine you’d use for doing heaving duty photo editing or playing the very latest edition of World of Warcraft – but it would be an awesome every day, around the house machine, as well as more than adequate for the vast majority of enterprise office professionals. It get us just that much closer to “life without wires”™.   Keep it up nVidia, you’re making the future of netbooks look that much brighter.

For another view check out EDN Senior Technical Editor Brian Dipert’s thoughts on the subject.

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At the dawn of UWB back in 2002 when the FCC authorized the use of over 7GHz of spectrum for UWB the application that caught people’s fancy, including that of the IEEE, was easily and cost effectively connecting a set-top box (or Blu-ray player) to an HDTV.  Over the years many companies have tried, yet failed, to solve this problem. Last week I saw the first announcement of a product that has a genuine chance to succeed –an Ultrawideband (UWB) WiMedia based design by TZero which they claim supports full 1080p60 high-definition wireless video streaming at a cost point of less than $50. If they can truly deliver a reliable in room link that fulfills the promise of their press release, then UWB for Wireless HDMI may be coming soon to a living room near you.

I’m sure people will ask why not use 802.11n, 60GHz (which by the way is also a form of ultrawideband) or perhaps a proprietary solution for wireless HDMI applications.  The technical issue with 802.11n is that it has a limited number of channels and can’t be deployed at high density in apartment buildings. Furthermore, 802.11n does not support the delivery of time critical audio and video isochronous traffic.  Both of these issues are a killer for real deployment of a streaming video solution. By contrast, when the WiMedia UWB standard was being developed, the protocol was specifically designed to support wireless audio/video and isochronous traffic.

Two other options for wireless HDMI solutions that could be considered are 60GHz or a proprietary solution. Aside from the myriad cost and technical problems that 60GHz solutions have, the biggest issue at the moment is that there is no single standard. Having been in the standards game for a while, this is a major problem for real widespread deployment.  The IEEE process for 60GHz is a mess – just like it was for UWB – but worse.  Let’s also not forget there is also an ECMA spec for 60GHz that will also compete for share of sockets.  The next “standard” is a proprietary 60GHz group lead by startup SiBEAM called WirelessHD™ – but this standard is way behind schedule and will ultimately collide with the IEEE standards. Then we have the  PC guys. Behind the scenes they are working on their own 60GHz solution which is not currently compatible with the IEEE 60GHz work or WirelessHD. To summarize, we have at least 4 competing “standards” all based on 60GHz technology.  This is the same mess that UWB went through in 2003 and 2004. 60GHz, simply based on the standards issues alone, is 4 to 5 years behind UWB in mainstream deployment independent of the technical debate.

Finally, there are proprietary solutions.  The market is accepting of these types of solutions for point to point applications like wireless HDMI – but only under certain circumstances. A proprietary solution has to be available far ahead of a standards based solution in order to achieve market traction. It has to be the same cost or lower, and it has to perform as good or better. Remember, in general, with the possible exception of Sony or Sony-followers, nobody sticks with proprietary solutions when standards-based products are available.  I don’t know of any proprietary wireless HDMI solution that meets these objectives versus the cost effective, standards based solution that TZero has just brought to market. In summary, it looks like UWB-based Wireless HDMI has good market potential for 2009.

As interesting as Wireless HDMI may be, there are limits to what it can do. Wireless HDMI essentially provides a wireless replacement for an HDMI cable by using a combination of encryption, UWB and H.264 video codec technology. However, it can only connect one HDMI connector wirelessly to another HDMI connector. That’s great for connecting your Blu-ray player to your HDTV, or for connecting your set top box to your HDTV. What it isn’t good for is for is connecting your desktop PC to your monitor or for connecting your laptop PC to your HDTV. There are two different sets of reasons why Wireless HDMI isn’t applicable to these important markets.

First, for both desktop and laptop connections you need to support applications other than streaming video.  To support a wireless desktop you must support not only an LCD monitor but the other USB peripherals on your desktop as well as PC audio speakers, USB speakers, web cameras and 10/100 Ethernet. Wireless USB solutions such as Alereon’s wireless docking station designs provide this capability. Secondly, wireless HDMI as Tzero has implemented is optimized for movie content. The technology is not really suited for classic desktop graphics applications such as Microsoft Outlook, Excel, Word or PowerPoint. For these applications H.264, used in Wireless HDMI, causes visual artifacts to appear around sharp edged fonts and to make grid lines disappear, dance or become fuzzy. This is just not acceptable for PC applications which require a visually lossless compression scheme such as the one employed in Alereon’s wireless desktop solutions.  This graphics solution supports PC graphics as well as DVD video or online video playback – and all at a lower cost point than Wireless HDMI.  To summarize UWB-based HDMI is a good solution for streaming video to your HDTV hanging on the wall, and Wireless USB-based UWB is good for PC based applications.

Whichever application meets the needs I am very bullish that consumers will have some great UWB-based wireless options coming to a desktop or a living room near you for 2009 bringing us into the future of “life without wires”.

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This past Friday EE Times reported that WiQuest, a former competitor of Alereon, closed its doors. One question that will surely be asked is “What does this mean for the future of Ultra Wideband (UWB)?”  This blog will try to address that question.

Some industry pundits will proclaim UWB is dead or that this is some form of setback to the industry. Not so. Those of us in the high tech business have seen this movie many times before. To really answer the question, we need to review history from two perspectives. First, why UWB makes sense, and second, what the history of new technologies teaches us.

UWB came into being because of new FCC regulations authorizing the use of an ultra wide band of frequencies to transmit information in an unlicensed frequency band from 3.1 to 10.6GHz, but at infinitesimal transmit power levels. Over time, the WiMedia UWB standard was developed. WiMedia is the only technology capable of transmitting data in a personal area network that acts as a point -to-point wireless cable replacement technology. The speeds can reach 480Mbps, and in the future, even faster. More importantly, the power and battery efficiency per megabyte of data transferred is more than 5 to 10 times more efficient than WiFi. In addition, unique to UWB, it can be deployed at high density on every desktop in a typical office layout without interfering with other users while still delivering very high throughput. These fundamental advantages of UWB versus other non-UWB wireless technologies have not vanished because one company has closed its doors. In fact, the unique advantages of UWB not only make it attractive to have been adopted for use in Wireless USB, but also to have been adopted by the Bluetooth SIG as the basis of a future high-speed version of Bluetooth. In the near future Bluetooth over UWB will certainly provide compelling applications for portable electronics. To summarize, the value of Ultra wideband hasn’t disappeared just because one company has disappeared.  Compelling applications exist, and major consumer-product manufacturers are actively pursuing these applications. After all, a life without wires”™  so that your desktop is devoid of a tangle of USB cables is a desirable benefit all consumers can agree on that UWB can deliver.

Now let’s look at high-tech history. If we study the development of the 10/100 Ethernet standard, it wasn’t AMD, nor was it Level One, nor National Semiconductor that ultimately won that race. Instead, it was a little known startup, Broadcom Communications, which prevailed and ultimately grew into the powerhouse they are today. Interestingly, Broadcom was not first to market. However they were not far behind, and they had a superior performing, lower power product and they won. Remember also, there were dozens of other 10/100 startup companies at the time that were either acquired or have subsequently been lost to history.

As a continued history lesson, when the Bluetooth standard began, again there were dozens of startups. They were competing against Ericsson and other major semiconductor manufacturers. Cambridge Silicon Radio, now called CSR, was not the first to market, but they brought the best to market. They subsequently became a public company and a billion dollar wireless provider (which ironically is now under pressure from Broadcom). There were dozens of other Bluetooth startups, a few of which were acquired by larger companies, but ultimately CSR was the true winner.

Our next example is WiFi.  Back in 2003 there was a study done of how many WiFi startups had been funded. The study I read claimed that 53 WiFi startup companies were begun during the tech boom.  Three were acquired by major companies. However, Atheros, a Silicon Valley startup, beat back the likes of TI and Intersil, and ultimately captured the market to become a successful publicly traded company and a leader in wireless communications. The rest of the 53 vanished.

Finally, let’s go back a bit farther in time to the beginning of the cell phone. A startup company nobody had heard of began in San Diego, California. The founder had an outlandish vision – that one day everyone in the world would carry around a battery powered phone to make phone calls. They were competing against Motorola, the grand daddy of radio communications for generations. More than two decades have passed since Qualcomm was founded back in 1985, and last year they became the largest wireless semiconductor supplier in the world.

Common to 10/100 Ethernet, the early days of Bluetooth, the history of WiFi and the history of the cell phone, was a painful and long birthing process.  Each of these markets took longer than most people thought it would to develop into a $100M and then multi-billion dollar market. In fact, it took a lot longer.  In each of  these technologies, the ultimate winner was not one of the established players but a new comer, a startup company focused on providing superior solutions in a timely manner to meet customer’s needs. It was also not the first company to market that conquered, but rather the best to market. These companies ultimately went public. There were other startups that were acquired. However most shared the fate of shutting their doors. I feel badly for the employees of WiQuest, at the same time we all know when you work at a private company “to the winner goes glory,” to the near winner is likely an acquisition by a bigger company, but for those that falter, the doors close. That is the Darwinian nature of this business. The closure of WiQuest does not portend the end of UWB. Rather, it is a testament to the fact that they did not have a solution available for OEMs today that provides support for world-wide shipments at high throughput and low power consumption. WiQuest is the most visible startup to close its doors so far, but if history tells us anything, they won’t be the last.

With or without WiQuest and others, UWB will continue to move forward. It has begun with the introduction of wireless docking stations and wireless hard drives. Soon you will see easy to use wireless conference room projectors – no more “pass the VGA cable please.” Digital cameras will soon be available that automatically upload your photos to your PC at very high speed without draining your battery. Yes, the market has taken a long time. UWB is a difficult technology to design and build. However UWB is taking the same well trodden path of many other highly successful technologies that came before it. Taking longer than most people thought, being declared dead a few times along the way, only to ultimately become a mainstay in our modern day life. UWB will be no different, and will usher in a future of “life without wires” – a future that all consumers are anxious to embrace.