Cable TV as you know it is on the verge of death. OK, maybe not death – but an unmistakable transformation. Yet if you take a look, it is hard to see any signs of doom. Like the transformation from broadcast to cable, film to digital or LPs to CDs, some technology transitions sneak up on an industry. However, the fault line is starting to break– and the rupture will be “the big one” for the Cable TV industry. What is this all about?

Right now many people send their cable company $25 to $125 a month to have push button access to a wide variety of programming – from local TV to movie channels, weather channels, news, sports, big networks, movies on demand, etc. We all do. Yet although there are zillions of shows being broadcast to our home at any given time, in reality we are only watching one or two shows at a time and maybe recording another show or two. Perhaps we are watching and recording 0.1% of all the content we are subscribing to.

Along comes Hulu, NBC, ABC, etc – all on line. As reported recently (http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/web/06/21/net.cable.companies/index.html?hpt=T2) many young people are foregoing the cable company altogether and instead using a cable modem as the “big pipe” to their 15” laptop.  The only access they have to movies and television content is on their laptop.   Now throw into this mix Alereon’s NoWire™ Laptop-2-HDTV technology, a product that wirelessly connects your laptop to your HDTV and enables your laptop screen to be reproduced on your TV screen. Instead of watching the relatively tiny 15” laptop on your lap or hunched over a coffee table, lean back and watch the show on your big screen HDTV – just like when you were paying $75 a month subscribing to zillions of channels. The difference? You save over $1,000 a year in cable bills. “But I love my DVR” you say. True enough. Hulu and other online sites, including YouTube, etc, have made the Internet the world’s biggest DVR. Watch the shows you want to watch, when you want to watch them.

As an example recently I was watching the US Open on the internet at the same time the Open was on one of the cable channels. On the internet I had four choices;  watch the 7^th and 17^th green, follow the field, follow Phil Michelson and a fourth choice – perhaps Tiger. Phil was having a great round so I watched Phil. Occasionally I flipped over to watch the rest of the field or see something else I was interested in. The Internet simply provided me with more choice for what I wanted to watch.

As another example, recently the last episode of LOST was aired on network TV. I haven’t watched in past years, but decided to watch the final season. Unfortunately I was traveling the Sunday night of the last episode so I had the DVR programmed. When I got home the DVR had happened to be full and hadn’t recorded LOST. No Problem. I turned on Hulu, used my NoWire unit, and watched the last episode in full 720P video on my HDTV. Better yet, it was 45 minutes shorter because the commercials on Hulu were much shorter than on network TV.

OK you say, but Hulu is going to go to a subscription and pay per view model. Fine. Between free streaming content that includes advertisements from the networks and my Netflix account and YouTube and whatever Apple does next . . . the charges for Hulu content will still mean that I am saving tons of money a month versus the current cable subscription model. Perhaps it is this inevitability that helped motivate Comcast to get into the content biz. They didn’t want to become just a big pipe.

This new viewership model of the Internet as your DVR won’t start out like a tsunami. It will begin with 20-somethings first since they are more willing to adopt new technology and deal with some of the early shortcomings. For instance, the variety of on-demand movies on your cable service is pretty broad and may be better for you than what you can find on Netflix or Blockbuster. Likewise, cable companies have aggressive contracts with service providers, so initially services like Hulu, when they add a subscription model, may or may not have “all you can eat” offerings like the cable company. Then there are the inevitable technical issues. In particular, WiFi was not really designed for streaming video. Further the download pipe into most people’s homes is pretty slow. To make the Internet your DVR many people will need to pay an extra $10 a month to the cable company for a bigger pipe into the internet. Further, to make video work well over WiFi for streaming video you can’t be as far away from your access point as you can for simply doing email. None of these short term impediments however change the inevitable that the cable model of content will change over the next five years as the impact of the Internet as your DVR causes more and more people to turn off or turn down their cable subscription services in favor of online content sources and buying a bigger internet pipe.

So what does this all mean for Life without Wires™?  It means that as Alereon’s customers come to market with NoWire based Laptop-2-HDTV products, you should buy one and try out this model. If after a month you find you aren’t really using cable as much as you were and are now relying on your laptop and the Internet to be your DVR, then the next month pay for faster cable modem service and cut loose some of your subscription services. You’ll save a ton of money.

Today there were several “major” announcements on new specifications (not products) on the 60GHz front that deserve a few comments.  First, the WirelessHD™ camp announced the next generation 1.1 specification. Second, the WiGig camp and the Wi-Fi Alliance  announced a cooperative agreement to share technology specs and compliance testing for the 60GHz version of WiFi.

So here is a quick background review. Today, there is only one 60GHz chipset available. WirelessHD™ is totally and completely incompatible with WiGig and in fact interferes. It is used in one aftermarket product for $600 from Best Buy – which isn’t selling – a few HDTVs from a few OEMs and finally Vizio says they plan to introduce some HDTVs later this year that will use WirelessHD.

The current state of WiGig is even more uncertain.  No company is currently sampling or shipping WiGig silicon. Once silicon is available it takes 2 years to conduct interoperability and then get products to market. Net, net -nobody will be shipping any production 60GHz WiGig products for many years – probably 3. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be some form of tech demo this year – but don’t expect products at Best Buy for a while.

The key question that has yet to be answered for 60GHz silicon is what application does the technology solve anytime soon that is of value? As a refresher remember that all today’s wireless technologies were driven by applications that were initially wired, then they moved to wireless:  Landline to cell phone; Ethernet to Wi-Fi; Headset cables to Bluetooth;  USB and HDMI to Ultrawideband.  What wired application is driving the 60GHz move to wireless?

There are three commonly discussed candidates at the moment given the current power consumption and size estimates of 60Ghz solutions. (1) Wireless uncompressed video for HDMI to HDMI applications (2) Wireless desktop storage  (3) Wireless LCD monitor or docking stations. To be successful in the HDMI market, you have to win the HDTV vendors.  To date WirelessHD is in very few models of HDTVs  As for wireless desktop storage – that requires adoption of USB3.0 across all PCs. USB 3.0 continues to rollout slowly.  In fact, Intel has not yet implemented the technology in their chipset and until they do, USB3.0 won’t get great traction.   Further, 1TB of desktop storage is now $149 [or less and dropping]. The cost of adding wireless has to be less than $5 on each end to make the pricing work. 60GHz is many years away from being capable of achieving these price levels.  Finally, implementation in a wireless LCD monitor or dock has serious problems. 60GHz can’t use the current WiFi antenna or radio – everything is different. This means the addition of a new radio and antenna to already jammed mobile solutions. In addition, to support a wireless LCD monitor and docking capability requires not only video compatibility but wired USB2.0 compatibility. WiGig doesn’t even attempt to solve the USB2.0 compatibility problem.  In summary, currently there is no interesting wired application which requires WiGig to become wireless. Therefore, without a “killer application”, WiGig will stall until one comes along.

From a hype and perception standpoint the WiFi Alliance and WiGig working together feels like a BIG, BIG deal. Recall that in the early days of WiMedia and Wireless USB that there was the same volume of noise and hype. The harsh reality is that 60GHz is a total bolt on for a lot of money. WiFi today is a chip that sells for $3.5 that can operate in 2.4 or 5Ghz and can use one antenna for B / G/ N.  60Ghz needs a silicon based antenna – not metal – and it needs a chip that is many times hotter and bigger than B / G / N.  Price wise they have 5+ years before they get anywhere near the pricing needed for mobile solutions.

To summarize,  these various 60GHz specification announcements will be seen by many people as “the future”. The reality is that there are currently no compelling applications that will drive this, especially given the power and cost points of the technology. As we have all previously suffered through, just because Intel beats the drum doesn’t mean a technology will succeed when it first comes out of the gates. Can you say HomeRF, Infiniband, WiMax?  Don’t get me wrong, 60GHz will inevitably find niche applications and make its way in the world. After all, 60GHz is a form of ultrawideband technology (consuming up to 1,600MHz of spectrum at a time), so it has some interesting properties. The new specs are a good starting point. However, until you can purchase exciting cost effective products you can use, don’t get too excited by all of the hype. Expect these products to be many years away.

FCC Chairman Genachowski is to be applauded for his proposed broadband plan which was sent to Congress a few weeks ago. It proposes to open up as much as 500MHz of spectrum for use by wireless broadband by re-allocating TV spectrum that in most cases is never or rarely being used to be re-purposed for use in delivering wireless internet access. The objective of the plan is 100 Million Americans having access to 100 Mbps internet service by 2020. As a technologist, I can’t even begin to imagine nor posit how the politics of this proposal will play out. You have the wireless carriers on one side, the TV broadcast interests on another, and the fiber backbone community in the mix just for good measure. Whatever the plans merits may be, the spectrum policy theater should be fascinating to watch.

Spectrum policy is always difficult because there are always so many heavily vested and large economic interests involved. The basic FCC plan itself is not that innovative. It simply takes spectrum that was allocated over 20 years ago for HDTV and recognizes that the vast majority of HDTV is being seen over cable and satellite and the Internet in 2010 – and not over the air viewership as originally thought so long ago. The world has changed, so let’s change with it. Take the heavily underutilized but highly valuable spectrum and instead sell it to those who really want it, but wrap it up in the national imperative of widely available wireless 100Mbps Internet access.

To date however, the new policy misses the opportunity for some true technical innovation and more forward thinking to address the problem of spectrum scarcity. In particular, although the policy addresses delivery of wireless broadband into the home, it does virtually nothing to address the problem of distributing content within and around the home once it gets there. In an oversimplified analogy, it is like having a 100Mbps cable modem come into only one room of your home but not having any wireless inside the house to get to your laptop or HDTV or any other devices. You would simply have one fat data plug for one computer. Yawn.

In the spirit of the FCC’s proposal, my proposal is to use under-utilized UWB spectrum allocated in the 6.3 to 8.8 GHz frequency bands to accomplish three objectives. First, with some enhancements to the UWB rules, UWB could be widely used to eliminate HDMI cables, Ethernet cables and USB cables inside the home. Aside from the obvious convenience factor, better utilizing UWB would make the new 100Mbps that is reaching each household more useable. Further, it would dramatically reduce the spectrum pressures being applied on WiFi. Finally, it would make it more attractive to take broadband traffic off of the air and put it into the wireline and fiber backbone – thus further reducing the pressure on spectrum.

Before jumping into particulars of how the FCC might better utilize UWB, one might wonder what applications could be enabled within the home using UWB which ultimately are beneficiaries of bigger wireless pipes into the home and the availability of ubiquitous “cloud computing” models enabled by these same pipes.
Here are just a few:

• Connect your PC Laptop wirelessly to your HDTV, including full 1080P-60 content and full 3D viewing as well as real time gaming
• Full HD videoconferencing from your family room using your HDTV with a wide angle web cam on the top of your HDTV
• Wireless photo uploads from your digital camera to your PC or your HDTV at speeds of 8Gbps, which is fast enough to unload a full 8GB SD memory card in 10 seconds
• Purchase and download movies or TV shows to watch on your smartphone or laptop in seconds before you leave on a trip
• Wirelessly connect your 3D gaming console to your 65” HDTV on the wall – no fuss, no muss
• Wirelessly watch videos taken on your smartphone up on your HDTV
• Wireless DVR recording and playback of five channels into a raid capable HDD in the family room
• Connect your Blu-Ray or 3D media player wirelessly to your HDTV in full 2160-240Hz deep color

So why UWB and what would I propose be changed? Using UWB uses underlay spectrum that is currently underutilized. By using UWB spectrum for these in home, high bandwidth cable oriented applications frees general purpose longer range spectrum for use for WiFi for internet access and eliminates the interference crunch that will otherwise inevitably happen in homes and apartment buildings. So if the FCC proposal is trying to address the “last mile” spectrum crunch, using UWB addresses the “last 50 feet” spectrum crunch. Secondly, UWB is a “green” radio technology that is especially suitable for any product that is batter powered such as a cell phone or laptop or DSC. UWB is 10X more battery efficient than WiFi for instance.

The specific proposals I would have liked to have seen for UWB in the FCC broadband plan would be to make the 6.3 to 8.8GHz portion of the UWB spectrum plan just as useful as the current 3.1 to 3.6GHz part of the spectrum. To do so would require allowing UWB to have 9dB more transmit power in this upper frequency band.  To put this in perspective however, that is still more than 500X LESS power than your WiFi router puts into the air, and over 2000X LESS power than your cell phone transmits. In other words, it isn’t going to interfere with anything – but it will enable UWB to avoid a coming spectrum crunch in the home and make it far easier to put other heavy data traffic on the cable and fiber networks – further reducing broadband spectrum pressures. Let’s hope as the FCC proposal moves forward that they recognize the role that UWB could play in the bigger picture of the last mile and the last 50 feet of spectrum management and let UWB eliminate the plethora of cables consumers want to make wireless. This will bring us that much closer to a “life without wires”™.

I recently sat down to try out Intel’s new Wireless Display product. It connects an Intel specially bundled chipset and software in a Toshiba laptop that works with a Netgear Push-2-TV adapter. Inside the Toshiba laptop is custom Intel software, an Intel i5 CPU, an Intel Graphics chip and an Intel WiFi chip. You can sorta see where this is going already – “son of Centrino”. At the moment, this bundle is a Best Buy exclusive for the next six months. [NOTE:  this systems only works as a bundle, i.e. this is not backwards compatible with any other hardware that is on the market]

The product itself sets up fairly easily. It uses Intel’s WiFi Direct technology (WiDi) to connect the laptop to the Netgear box which is connected to the HDTV’s HDMI port. Anything on the laptop screen is shown on the HDTV. The product itself works fine – provided there isn’t too much other WiFi interference to mess up the video. There are also some important caveats. First, the Intel WiDi product has substantial delay – about 2 seconds, between the laptop screen and the HDTV. For watching video content, that doesn’t really matter making the system an adequate video viewer. What WiDi doesn’t do well at all is make the HDTV a virtual desktop or second monitor. The delay is entirely intolerable. For example you can’t type on the web browser on your laptop and look at the HDTV screen – the delay drives you nuts. Moreover, the cursor movement delay is bad enough that Intel has the option of disabling the cursor from being seen on the HDTV altogether. Another great application the WiDi can’t do is running Skype – the 2 second delay makes it unwatchable on the HDTV. Finally, though text and graphics quality is okay , there is noticeable degradation with some fuzziness around sharp edges.

Let’s contrast this with products based on Alereon’s NoWire™ Technology.  First, there is no lag time or delay between the laptop and the HDTV allowing you to easily surf the web (including using your keyboard and mouse). Facebook, YouTube and generally web browsing all look great. In addition Alereon’s NoWire technology allows the user to make their HDTV into an extended monitor, something Intel’s technology does not allow. Imagine being able to use the  DVD player in your laptop, throw the movie up onto your HDTV as and extended monitor, but continue to use your laptop to do your email, etc while the kids are entertained by their DVD. Finally, you can use an Alereon NoWire solution with any existing laptop or desktop system, so you can easily add it to what you have today.  In summary if you want a simple laptop viewer – and you are ready to purchase a new $1000 laptop, then one of the three WiDi enabled laptops at Best Buy may be your ticket. Conversely, if you want to use your current laptop or purchase any laptop of your choice, and want to use your HDTV as just a real time extension of your laptop, then wait a few months and purchase a retail aftermarket kit that incorporates Alereon’s NoWire technology.

The more interesting question to think about is where does Intel plan to go with WiDi? To me, it seems pretty clear. They are learning through the first WiDi product and have plans for a broader product in 2011 or beyond. I suspect they have in mind a marketing campaign and bundle reminiscent of the original Centrino campaign that was an Intel CPU plus Intel WiFi chip. This campaign however will be more wide ranging. It is focused on driving Intel’s graphics into the system – thus increasing Intel’s average content in the bundled laptops. Further, it is meant to cover up the fact that in general Intel’s graphics chips are inferior to those from the ATI division of AMD or the graphics chips from Nvidia. Since the Laptop-to-TV application is a natural hit feature, Intel may be able to use their kitting to drive market share at the expense of both AMD and Nvidia in the consumer laptop market. In summary, I expect to see Intel come out with WiDi marketing for holiday season 2010 and a much bigger push in 2011.

Where does this ultimately go? I think where this ends up is that as this application becomes popular, UWB radios become standard inside laptops to provide the link to the HDTV. The reason is simple – UWB can provide more bandwidth to allow higher performance video without interfering with or “stealing bandwidth” from  the WiFi already prevalent in homes and offices.  The system will allow real time usage of the system, without crazy delays that make some applications unusable, making it more than just a movie viewer.  The Laptop on HDTV era is upon us – and just one more example of Life without Wires™.

Introduction

At CES in January 2010 Sony demonstrated two digital cameras and a Sony Vaio laptop connecting using TransferJet – a new Sony proprietary technology based on a form of ultrawideband (UWB) wireless technology. TransferJet is built by Sony Semiconductor and in order to standardize the technology has been made the core of the TransferJet industry trade group (www.transferjet.org) .  Sony states they will begin shipping TransferJet enabled products in February and March. Rumor central says that Toshiba will ship a laptop with TransferJet in Q2.

What it Does

TransferJet is a near field or wireless contact technology meaning that it will only work when the two devices are essentially touching one another. There is a special TransferJet (TJ) logo at the contact point of each product; touch the logos and the two products wirelessly connect. The maximum range is only 1” however – so you need to make sure you keep the items in contact or really close together. Sony demonstrated three applications they believe will be interesting to. First, transferring photos or video clips from a digital camera (DSC) to a laptop. In this example, you essentially have to rest the DSC on the top of the laptop – which means you really can’t be typing nor doing anything while the photos are being transferred. Hmmm. Second, you can transfer photos from one DSC to another by touching the TJ symbols on the two cameras. Imagine two teenage girls with their pink cameras swapping pix. Third, Sony has in mind putting TransferJet in smart phones allowing consumers to purchase content at a kiosk in the train station to watch on the way home.  All interesting uses of wireless technology

The Good and The Bad

TransferJet, in general, is a pretty nice idea.  However, due to the very short range the technology has some usability issues. With no network IDs to type in and built in security due to the very short range  TransferJet is real simple. That’s nice. There are a few issues though. First, almost no PCs have TJ built in. So, if you purchase a TransferJet digital camera you have to purchase an adapter for your laptop that has the TJ logo touch point on it. But . . .Arghhh . . .the adapter is about 4” x 4” and has a USB cable coming out of it to plug into the PC – and it costs $149. Not only is it expensive – but it is big and ungainly. Next, due to the short range, you will often have to rotate the camera on the touch point of the laptop – otherwise the logos won’t align and connect. That takes away a bit from the ease of use. However the biggest oversight in my mind is the missing application that TransferJet doesn’t support – connecting to the HDTV. Uploading to your PC is nice – don’t get me wrong. But having to rest your camera on your PC and not using the keyboard while you wait – that is annoying. But the screen I really want to see my photos on is my HDTV. TransferJet doesn’t solve this problem. First, 1” of range doesn’t let me set my camera on the coffee table and show photos up on the HDTV. Second, no HDTV maker is going to put a TJ logo anyplace on the glass of the HDTV. Can you imagine your six year old clanking the digital camera up against the screen of your $1000 HDTV. Oy Gevalt! Another unfortunate characteristic of the TranferJet solution is that it requires a lot of software to be developed by the camera maker – and more software on the PC, since it can’t reuse any of the photo transfer software already in the camera for the USB port. In addition, from the demonstrations I saw, it seems the main processor inside the digital camera was controlling the speed of the data transfer. Therefore, although peak throughput is rated at 375 Mbps; the demonstrations I witnessed were clearly transferring at much, much lower pedestrian speeds.

It is unclear why Sony didn’t just use an international standard version of UWB – ISO 368/369 instead to solve this important problem. The UWB used in the ISO standard, also called WiMedia, can be used around the world. It can be made at low cost, low power and high speed with much better range than TransferJet. A key value they would have gotten is the abililty to  connect a digital camera to an HDTV. Further, the new WiMedia spec, issued early in January, ups the speed of WiMedia UWB to over 1Gbps while not materially changing the power consumption or cost of these future 1Gbps solutions.  Perhaps, like many past Sony inventions, they decided that the problem was so important that they would push their own solution so that they could charge royalties for its usage – much like CDs in the past. However Sony doesn’t rule the world of consumer electronics like they once did – so it will be interesting to see how TransferJet does in the marketplace. It is also interesting to note that they didn’t use any other form of radio technology. They chose a UWB variant solution because UWB is the most energy efficient means to transfer lots of data in a short period of time. Just like WiMedia UWB. Ultimately consumers will decide on the success of TransferJet – but with Sony’s introduction of this technology, we are just that much closer to a time of Life without Wires™.

Recently Belkin announced they were canceling the planned availability of their much delayed Flywire wireless HDMI transmitter and receiver. Some writers speculate that it had to due with performance problems. Others speculate it was the cost point. Yet others wonder aloud if standards issues are the problem. I think the real reason is a blend of many of the “truths” offered up online.

If Flywire had been targeted at a $249 price point, worked really well and was simple to set up, then even in an awful economy I suspect Belkin would have figured out some way to deliver the product. I think it is fair to surmise that the price point Belkin thought they had to charge exceeded what the retail market could accept in the current economy. Once they decided they couldn’t hit the proper retail price point, speculation on standards or performance issues were a moot point. My conclusion is that their decision was dominated by cost and macroeconomic considerations; not market interest, performance or standards issues.

One question that remains however is – what technology will drive wireless HDMI consumer products for the living room. Will it be one standard, or will it be a collection of standards? Certainly the folks at Amimon hope that it is their own proprietary solution. Others in the WiFi world hope that it becomes some blend of 802.11-N and some form of video compression codec. Still others are betting on the hype of various flavors of 60GHz. Finally there is the dark horse – UWB.

It is difficult to predict which solution or solutions may become the final winner. Given that no technology has yet established a firm early leadership position in the market it seems the field is still wide open. I argue here that issues of economics and spectrum ultimately will result in the dark horse – UWB, becoming the eventual winner. On the WiFi front, many companies are offering various forms of 802.11-N as a means to distribute video. For store and forward video, this will undoubtedly be the predominant solution. The question however is what solution will become dominant in the living room to connect set-top boxes or media players to HDTVs? The issue for WiFi-N is that it is somewhat costly, requires bulky antenna’s and it will not perform well in high density apartment buildings where most people live. It may be possible to make it work for some homes in suburbia in the US, but it won’t scale well for the high rises in Japan, Korea, Europe and major US cities. These problems are already evident in standard WiFi internet access.

So what about 60GHz? Well, there is the strawberry, blueberry and vanilla versions – namely WiGig, IEEE 802.15.3c, then there is the WiFi 60GHz (IEEE 802.11ad) not to mention SiBeam’s proprietary Wireless HD proposal. Ignoring the non-trivial issues of standards, one thing that all of these solutions have in common however is (A) high cost (B) support for uncompressed video up to about 1080p30 and (C) high directionality and “furniture intolerance”. Essentially, 60GHz is about where UWB was in 2004. There have been two product announcements by Japanese HDTV vendors of 60GHz solutions – but availability and pricing haven’t been announced and no independent performance analysis has been completed. What is likely to appear is a very expensive point-to-point solution that won’t fully support 1080P-240Hz at deep color;a requirement for the market 18 months from now. Having a brand new standard that is expensive, but comes up a “day late and a dollar short” on performance doesn’t augur well for market acceptance of 60GHz for living room applications.

If WiFi-N is doubtful due to being a victim of its own success because of overcrowding and insufficient spectrum or bandwidth available for apartment buildings, and 60GHz is unlikely to achieve success due to a plethora of standards, cost and performance issues, then what technology will fill the void? I expect over the next few years it will be UWB that is tied to a cost effective, low latency H.264 video codec. By my calculation, a solution could be built today which has a cost of about $35 per end, or about $70 for a complete solution from HDMI connector to HDMI connector; all in. Not great, but if it were implemented as a retail product, it could be sold for $199 (low enough for Belkin to have released a product). So, it is possible with UWB to hit the right price point for an after market product. More importantly, in one turn of Moore’s Law, this form of solution could be implemented inside of an HDTV for about $20 – all in. Though still a bit high, it is low enough to gain some very serious traction. I don’t know who will win this race and take this prize, but UWB has the right attributes to solve the problem of wireless HDMI and be capable of being deployed at low cost and in high density in apartment buildings. So when will this all happen? I expect specialty products that are far more expensive than $199  to come to market by early 2010. I don’t expect to see the $179 price point however until the back-to-school season of 2011. Just one more step forward in living “life without wires™”.

In spite of all the ballyhoo about the announcements of ARM based netbooks what seems clear from COMPUTEX is that Intel is still firmly ensconced on their throne and still King of the netbook hill. Further, Intel shows no signs of giving up their gilded position; quite to the contrary. With the future Menlo and Moorestown versions of the Atom processor coming they clearly plan to defend and try to expand their market position.

At the core of the ARM netbook challenge is software and application software. At the high end, users need to have that “laptop internet experience”.  That requires two things, hardware performance, and support of Adobe Flash technology.  Of the various aspirants to enter the MID and netbook market using an ARM core, NVIDIA seems the most likely prepared for success in this arena. The NVIDIA Tegra solution includes support for both hardware decode of Adobe’s Flash and support for high definition 1080p video decode without any intervention of the ARM CPU. This enables Tegra-based netbooks to provide users with a full Internet experience and a far superior multi-media experience versus an Atom-based product (or any of the other ARM netbook products).

Another major aspirant, Qualcomm, introduced a higher performance ARM CPU as well as promised a new dual core product. Qualcomm’s Snapdragon, with it’s communications centric approach and integration, seems extremely well suited for branding applications with cellular operators that are phone centric.

Not to be left out of the fray are all the “others”; Broadcom, Via, Freescale, TI, AMD, etc. This sets the stage for a very interesting 2010. We will see Netbooks sporting the Nano processor from Via. We will see entry level Atom processors coupled with the NVIDIA ION. We will see Atom chips with Broadcom’s Crystal video and media accelerator. Not to be left out, there is also the ARM entry from Freescale. Which products will win? Tough to predict. My money is on Qualcomm when it comes to the smaller netbooks that are very communications centric, especially the 3G cellular operator models. I think NVIDIA is next up to bat with the larger models where a consumer wants a more multi-media experience as well as an Internet experience. It feels to me that Freescale will make a valiant try, but is probably too hobbled by debt to mount a serious challenge in this market. The Via guys will put up a valiant fight but the new entries coming from Intel will hold back their ability to gain market share. Finally, there is AMD. They can certainly do it, and with ATI in their arsenal they should be well equipped to make a run at this market. The real issue with AMD is can they truly afford to open yet another front line in the war with Intel. Given the growth rates in Netbooks, they may be forced into it. Their Neo product is evidence they are taking the market seriously. The question remains can they keep up with Intel’s R&D and rate of new product introductions. We shall see.  Oh, and by the way, many OEMs discussed ARM based netbooks. However no compelling product was actually introduced (more accurately, none are for sale!).

As a final note, how does this netbook battle relate to “life without wires”? Netbook applications are many and varied.  Some are bought as a 2nd lighter laptop to take on vacation for Internet access.  Others are sold bundled by the cellular operators as internet travel machines.  Still others are being sold as the only affordable PC option the buyer has. What all netbooks have in common, no matter the CPU or the OS,  are two things. First, they are light weight and have small screen sizes. Second, they are all about mobility.  This is where UWB can help. In particular, with a wireless docking station, the user can walk into a room and quickly attach to a full sized 22” LCD monitor, get full access to a regular sized keyboard, mouse and a plethora of standard USB peripherals all while retaining the superior mobility of a netbook.  No Wires.   As another example, a PC to HDTV Extender can be useful. I wrote about this in an earlier blog. In particular, with a PC Extender the user can plop down on the couch with their netbook and wirelessly connect to a small adapter sitting next to their HDTV.  Think ginormous 52” LCD HDTV monitor. If you buy the right model, you can even plug in a web cam to do Skype video conferencing using the HDTV and plug in your printer. Imagine sitting on the couch surfing the web with your 1.3 lb netbook on your lap and watching Hulu videos or updating your Facebook page or playing online games or whatever. Pretty neat. All courtesy of UWB.  Now that is life without wires.

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Recently the new Wireless Gigabit Alliance (WiGig) opened its doors. The membership reads like a list of who’s who in the PC and CE markets along with large semiconductor leaders. The group is not as prestigious as the original membership in WiMedia, but it is certainly a top notch group. Many member companies seemed to take special pains to point out that WiGig is meant to be what WiMedia Ultrawideband (UWB) has not yet become – a high speed cable replacement technology for use in one room. (NOTE: UWB is a technical term referring to any radio technology which uses more than 450MHz of RF spectrum during transmission. WiMedia uses 528MHz of spectrum, whereas WiGig is anticipated to use 800MHz and 1600 MHz of spectrum. Thus WiGig is essentially UWB; albeit at a higher transmit power and frequency than WiMedia UWB, which operates in the 3.1 to 10.6GHz frequency band.)

With no specifications yet published or even alluded to I can’t make a fully informed set of comments, but I can take an educated guess and extrapolate from there. My working assumption is that WiGig will re-use the most recent WiFi MAC and that they PHY portion of the specification will include 800 and 1600MHz Ultra Wide Bands of frequency at 60GHz.   The technology will employ OFDM for very high data rates, some variant of a single carrier modulation for 1Gbps type data rates, and likely will need to include some form of beam steering capability added to the MAC. Therefore, from a complexity level, the OFDM version of 60GHz UWB will be more complex and have higher power consumption than WiMedia UWB whereas the single carrier version is likely to be about the same power consumption as WiMedia, but less power consumption than WiFi-N.

So the central question then is– where does WiGig fit? Before we can address this question however we need to put WiGig into context with regards to time frame. Clearly the aim of WiGig from a standards perspective is to bulldoze two different IEEE standards efforts as well as an ECMA standards effort and get them to coalesce to the WiGig specification. From an industry perspective this may even be desirable. But even a bulldozer effort takes time, and will likely be resisted by the WirelessHD Consortium (SiBEAM based), the WHDI SIG (Amimon based) and their supporters. Thus, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that though WiGig may have a specification sooner, there won’t be a true industry standard until late 2010. That means there won’t be silicon until 2011. Which means there won’t be interoperable solutions that work well until 2012. In turn, that means consumers can’t expect any interesting interoperable products until 2013. That does NOT mean you won’t see niche 60GHz products prior to 2013. You will. There will be a few HDTVs with SiBeam’s solution in the market by the end of 2009. But these solutions will be WirelessHD solutions – which is not a recognized international standard, but rather an industry working group.

With the timeframe established, the question is what applications will WiGig address in 2012 and 2013 and beyond? My contention is that the OFDM version of WiGig 60GHz UWB will be too expensive and too complicated to implement consumer versions of wireless HDMI The Wireless HDMI market will ultimately end up including H.264 or some other form of compression technology and be dominated by specialized WiFi-N variants as well as WiMedia UWB. The debate on non-compressed and compressed video will be over – it will be compressed just like all MP3 music, satellite and cable TV and Blu-Ray movies are today. On the desktop the solution will be gen-2 WiMedia UWB (which operates at gigabit speeds) with a chance that it will be augmented by WiGig UWB’s single carrier solution due to its low incremental cost.

An important industry segment I have not touched on is portable devices such as digital cameras and cell phones. These applications need a solution that is small, low power, power efficient and that can provide connectivity to a PC and to an HDTV at 100Mbps. WiFi-N can provide some of this connectivity, but isn’t a good choice if battery life becomes important due to extended transmission times. WiMedia is a good choice because it can support Wireless USB to the PC, and DLNA over TCP/IP to the HDTV while providing high throughput and excellent battery life. WiGig UWB in its OFDM incarnation is capable of addressing the data rates, but antenna considerations, size and power consumption issues isn’t likely to be candidate for a portable solutions by 2013. By contrast, it is conceivable that WiGig UWB’s single carrier solution may be capable of addressing these requirements provided the user is willing to be 5 feet away and willing to accept a line-of-sight solution. My conclusion is that in the end, WiGig UWB at 60GHz just isn’t likely to penetrate into hand held portable devices and will be restricted to HDTVs and perhaps desktop LCD monitors for PCs.

In summary, given the probable capabilities of WiGig and its market timing, it seems reasonable that WiGig will be a “tweener” technology. The OFDM version will be too little too late versus WiFi-N alternatives and too complex, large and costly versus WiMedia UWB. The lower cost single carrier solution may find a home in the market, primarily due to its lower cost structure and low power consumption. Conversely, WiFi-N in various forms will likely fill the gap for many applications, with WiMedia UWB and gen-2 Gigabit WiMedia solving the desktop connectivity applications as well as many of the portable applications.  Probably the best way to sum it up is “UWB: The fastest, easiest international standard you’ll have for the next 4 years”.  That is how I see the evolving future of Life without Wires™.

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We all know the old expression “and the third time is the charm”. It was true for Windows – Windows 3.1 revolutionized desktop computing. For WiFi, 802.11G was the third version for this wireless standard after the original 1Mbps and 11Mbps versions. With raw data rates of 54Mbps and throughput of 20Mbps, “G” became a big success. The third time was the charm for LANs as well. The first gen was 2Mbps, followed by 10Mbps but the market exploded when we reached 10/100 Ethernet – once again the third time was the charm. With the recent introduction of BT 3.0 however, the Bluetooth SIG seems to have missed the boat and broken the adage.

Let’s look at the particulars. Basic Bluetooth 1.1, at about 1Mbps, has been very successful in transforming the cell phone experience with the hands free convenience of a Bluetooth wireless ear bud or headset. Bluetooth 2.0, at a mere 3Mbps, frankly hasn’t brought much more to the party other than adding stereo. With High Speed rumors swirling, expectations for Bluetooth 3.0 have been justifiably pretty high. And what did we get? It seems we got an ease of use extension for WiFi marketed by the Bluetooth SIG under their moniker. Essentially, what BT 3.0 does is provide the users a 12Mbps data pipe [NOTE: the BT-SIG claims 22 to 26Mbps, however that is only if the BT radio is not in use, if you are using your headset that drops to around 12Mbps. In addition, if there are other 802.11 networks in operation on the same channel nearby, throughput could be even less]   that can be more easily set up if both sides of the connection have (1) a Bluetooth radio (2) a WiFi radio and (3) new BT 3.0 gear shifting control software. At a high level, the way it works is that two BT 3.0 products connect over standard BT 1.1.  If each side advertises that it has a WiFi radio AND is capable of BT 3.0 gear shifting, then should the two products choose to transfer files which aren’t suitable for 3Mbps, they can “up-shift” to 3rd gear to 12Mbps over WiFi. And when do we get this grand new increase in speed?  Probably 9 to 18 months from now!  Yawn.

So, here are some of my issues with such a modest enhancement to the BT specification, not in any particular order. First, operators aren’t going to easily enable BT 3.0 for any form of peer to peer oriented application. The BT 3.0 speed is too close to their 3G and 4G data rates. Why enable a file transfer from one device to another for free if the operator can send it over their network almost as fast and make money doing it?  IF the file transfer is huge – so big that it would bog down the network or otherwise take so long that the consumer didn’t use the service, then the operator is far more likely to be accommodating of an ultra high speed peer to peer transfer. This would be the case for UWB. However, if the data is huge, such as a large video clips you took on your camera phone or a few of your favorite playlists BT 3.0 at 12Mbps just isn’t fast enough.  Conclusion number one; we shouldn’t expect to see a near term   peer to peer capability coming from Bluetooth any time soon.

Second issue. Does BT 3.0 address data transfers to a PC? Today, most phones, when connected to a PC over a USB cable, can support throughput from 25 to 50Mbps with the highest speed feature phones capable of about 200Mbps of delivered throughput. Further, as the processors in the phones keep getting faster (the real bottleneck), the average speed is increasing. Therefore, BT 3.0 can’t reasonably be used as a wireless alternative to the ubiquitous USB cable because (A) the software on the PC won’t be compatible with BT 3.0 for many years and (B) the throughput will be 50% to 90% slower versus a USB cable. By contrast, UWB is software compatible with today’s USB applications on both the PC and cell phones, is more battery efficient, and can achieve peak throughputs in excess of 300Mbps. The user experience would be much more satisfying.  OK, so BT 3.0 won’t enable peer to peer applications very well and it won’t provide a wireless alternative to the ever-present USB cable.

So why is there a BT 3.0?  First, it was easy.  Many phones already have a WiFi radio so there was not a lot of hardware to be added.  Second, it does give you faster speed, but is it fast enough?  Surely not for most interesting applications, especially a year from now when it initially debuts, but still faster.  I’m sure however that there are going to be some unknown niche applications that will come to market. Finally, I see this as a prototyping vehicle awaiting BT 4.0 which should include UWB running at 480Mbps and 1+Gbps. That will really add some much needed speed to support really interesting applications.

Finally, what will be interesting to see is how this is going to play out in the market over the next year or two.  Looking from the 30,000 foot level I wonder how this is going to compare/contrast/compete with the Intel WiFi Pan solution called My Wifi. Intel, though late to the party, has been a leading promoter of WiFi through their Centrino™ program. They abandoned their BT efforts long ago so have little interest in its success. Through their strength in the PC market, Intel has been working on both a low power WiFi solution and has been talking up their Cliffside WiFi PAN based program – recently called their “My WiFi” effort. The objective of My WiFi is to make it easy to connect one WiFi enabled portable devices – the sacrosanct territory of the BT SIG – with PCs using the WiFi protocol. For a variety of reasons My WiFi will have relatively modest throughput – probably about 25Mbps.

If Intel had their druthers, I believe they would like BT to stay “in a box” and continue to be an earbud technology – not a connectivity technology that threatens their My WiFi strategy and WiFi products. Intel is on the BT-SIG Board and I assume they had a hand in convincing the BT SIG to add software into their standard to enable BT applications to move more graciously off of BT and on to WiFi. My expectation is that Intel will roll out their My WiFi marketing campaign in early 2010 together with their Capella product launch, which is likely to be ahead of the launch of  “high speed” BT products.   They will tout My WiFi as faster than Bluetooth and the way to connect your iPhone and other portable devices at 25Mbps to your PC or to your MAC. The marketing dollars and the campaign Intel can mount will dwarf any marketing message BT will be able to muster around BT 3.0. More over, consumers equate WiFi with data connectivity.  My WiFi therefore will make sense to consumers.  The BT-SIG has a harder PR job with “high speed BT”. Who needs that kind of speed for audio? The results?  BT 3.0 has significant trouble getting traction and awaits rebirth as BT 4.0, a true high speed standard.

The good news however is the BT SIG, true to its mission, is trying to improve connectivity for consumers. They are bringing forward a tiny incremental speed improvement; they will build a nice prototype for what the BT SIG really needs to enable Life Without Wires™ – a UWB radio operating at both 480Mbps and 1Gbps at extremely low power. Now we are talking.

Recently Intel formerly announced the Nehalem processor family to much fanfare. There was much written about the virtualization capabilities, the improvements in power efficiency, the addition of more cores, threads, improvements over Woodcrest, etc. What hasn’t received much attention are the two communications chips in the family. Included within the Xeon 5500 family are two products targeted at directly at the communications market  – the L5518 and the L5508.  These two chips represent an enormous R&D investment on Intel’s part and they certainly were not done as “Field of Dream” chips, they were done for a customer. The only customer in the networking world worth doing a chip like this for is Cisco. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that what we are witnessing with the introduction of the 5508 and the 5518 is the gradual reduction of dependency by Cisco and others on the PPC and MIPS architecture processors for control plane applications on communications line cards. Much as I wrote about the Apple switch from PPC to Intel architecture some years ago, now we are seeing Cisco make the same kind of strategic processor architecture choice. Intel is a manufacturing powerhouse. They always have the latest lithography and largest capacity. They have the R&D to keep investing hundreds of millions of dollars to keep their product line fresh. With the addition of multiple cores, virtualization, many threads and integrated memory controllers, Nehalem becomes a compelling choice for many high end control plane processor cards.  Given the struggles Freescale has had getting its own high performance multi-core processors to market, compounded with IBM’s tardiness in new PPCs and the acquisition of PPC specialist PA Semi, the choice by Cisco to augment their products with an Intel architecture is both understandable and compelling. This is not going to be the same type of switch that happened at Apple – which was pretty much a light switch change over. Instead, what you will see is the inexorable pull of the Intel black hole on control plane processors. The highest value sockets will convert first to Nehalem processors and their progeny. Then the natural progression will be that they will work their way down into midrange systems over time. In spite of the ballyhoo that surrounded the PPC Cell series of chips, it doesn’t appear that customers have figured out how to program this beast for these types of communications applications. The multi-core MIPS products have been making some progress as evidenced by the Cavium product family. Never the less the inexorable march of the Intel architecture across the most important sockets in communications has begun. This in turn will relegate the PPC architecture to IBM servers and a few game consoles.  That probably isn’t enough to make the investments required to stay competitive in this ever more expensive endeavor of building leading edge processors. In the end, it is not a matter of IF, but when, the PPC reaches the Event Horizon of the Intel architecture black hole.  Time will tell.

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