Apple Musings: How making the switch might get easier
This past weekend I was in Palo Alto on a tour of Stanford with my son. Though we both enjoyed the visit, I think the highlight for my son was seeing Steve Jobs ambling down the street in khakis, black flip flops and his classic black t-shirt. Yes son, Steve is a real walking, talking, person – not just an industry icon only seen at product launches on Apple’s web site over the internet.
Walking across the street from his greatness got me thinking a bit about the strategic implications for Apple with regard to Wireless USB and our vision here at Alereon: Life Without Wires™. I was motivated, not as much by seeing Steve, but by the fact that my son recently purchased a 20” iMac with money he earned doing various IT-like jobs in high school and by the fact that my spouse took delivery of her own 17” iMac just the other day. I have on a number of occasions commented on the exciting utility of having Wireless USB included in an iPod or a new Microsoft Zune and have commented on the much rumored iPhone. I have also commented on why it was about time when Apple announced their switch to Intel. However my latest Apple musing centers on the meaning of Wireless USB in obvious market share gain for Apple’s laptop and desktop business.
In particular, as we look out in time a few years, all new X86 PCs will come standard with Wireless USB. Likewise, most new PC peripherals and the higher end models of most digital cameras, video cameras, MP3 players and cell phones will also come with Wireless USB. In the past, there were multiple impediments confronting a consumer who may have been contemplating the switch to a MAC. First, they were expensive (and they still are). Second, MACs didn’t run many of the Windows applications people were used to (with Boot Camp they now can). Third, MACs didn’t have processors as fast as Intel’s (now they do). Finally, the thought of disconnecting the rat’s nest of cables from your stuff to your PC just to then reconnect them all to a new MAC is still somewhat intimidating. With the advent of Wireless USB, there won’t be any tangle of cables. This should appeal to Apple. They are all about ease of use, clean design, and “insanely great products.” With the advent of Wireless USB, buying a MAC to displace a Dell or HP will be that much easier. In the future therefore, the only impediment to the switch will be price plus the learning curve required for the differences between the Mac’s OS-X and a PC’s Windows or Vista.
Both my son and my spouse have been using Windows based machines since they began using computers. They both chose to switch to the MAC for different reasons. My son felt the MAC was a more elegant machine and was drawn to its coolness factor after falling in love with his iPod. My spouse chose to switch based upon the elegance of the design, the promise of being able to retain a Windows personality when required, the avoidance of viruses and the fact that Apple provides good customer service (not to mention the availability for one more year of live-at-home IT help). But where do I see this all going for everyone else?
Undoubtedly, the MAC is a graceful machine; though you pay for the elegance. In this digital era of digital cameras, digital camcorders, and now progress scan HDTVs consumers care less about running Microsoft Word to write letters than they did. Instead, in the new digital media world, they care about editing photos and videos, or connecting to their HDTVs – all of which are applications the MAC does particularly well; together with surfing the ‘net and doing email – which the MAC does just fine. (This is not to mention that MACs seem nearly immune to viruses and other such vermin, unlike PCs). The net of these trends and the removal of impediments to the switch are that Apple will continue to see market share gains for home computing products. Frankly, I expect Apple to reach 10% market share in the home computing market in the next two years. As Wireless USB becomes pervasive, and once Apple adopts Wireless USB in their platform, expect to see one of the last impediments to the switch to Apple fall – the current impediment of the tangle of cables around peoples PCs. Concomitant with the future era of Wireless USB and Life Without Wires™ will be a marked increase in Apple’s share of the home computing market. So, perhaps the next time I am in Palo Alto with my son I will see Steve at the Apple Store on University Avenue downloading a few songs onto his newest iPod with Wireless USB. A few seconds and he’d be on his way.
Let me know your thoughts. — Eric
August 24th, 2006 at 5:34 am
Eric,
I think that WUSB/WiNet will help Apple gain PC market share because Apple has become more device focused, and that model will work well with wireless USB as we move away from the PC. I can see a future, not too far out, where your phone/mp3player/camera is also your PC. You set it down on the table and it connects automatically to your monitor, keyboard, and a mouse, all without wires. Dell will fight that model, but I think Apple could embrace it.
August 24th, 2006 at 12:51 pm
Rob,
Actually, I like your thinking. I had brought up this concept some time ago in another Blog entry. I don’t recall the details, but essentially I was postulating that with a smart phone that has a 1Ghz ARM in it that also supports Wireless USB and Bluetooth that you’d have a virtual mobile PC like product. You could connect to keyboard and mouse using Bluetooth. The box itself would probably be sitting in a recharging holder on your desk. The Wireless USB would connect to your wireless docking station and to your LCD monitor. This would work well for email, Internet browsing and seeing apps over a corporate intranet. It could probably even do client/server.
I agree that Apple might like it and Dell may not. Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, LGE, and Qualcomm may also like this model. Thanks for your comments. —- ERic